How To Track The Greenback

***(this was an article written by me and my colleague Saswata Das some time back for ANMI yearly magazine - some data points have changed, but the underlying factors have not. Relevant for all those who have an interest in currency derivatives markets and even those who are not, but have heard terms about currency swaps during BRICS summit or have heard the dollar is flying away or have heard about the rising crude prices. I will present in 4 parts - first part today)***



The past few weeks have been one of intense turmoil in the currency market. The US Dollar spot rate has seen a minimum of 43.85 (end-July) and a maximum of 49.89 (mid-September) INR, a swing of close to 14 percent in a span of less than 3 months. This has confounded the market participants including the traders, retail clients, the investors and the economists alike. This swing is all the more spectacular given the fact that the US itself was in the throes of a debt crisis itself in July, which had led to a literal gold-rush reporting a huge surge in the price of the yellow metal.

However, since then, fears of a global recession, led by fears of default in South-European economies and downgrades by rating agencies, has led to increased confidence in the US Dollar. But does this not necessarily mean a weak Euro. The Euro / USDINR ratio has been down since the highs of May and June, but it was at its lowest this year in January. What does all this mean? To an ordinary investor or even a seasoned trade, all these might be very confusing. The fact that unlike equities or even commodities, there is a vast array of factors that causes these swings. A 24-hour market that affects economies, the currency market can seem a bit intimidating. However, a closer look at the currency derivatives market will indicate that there are some factors that affect the prices more than others. Here we will have a look at those factors, mostly from an Indian perspective.

USD/INR & the Indian Stock Market

The Indian Rupee has always been critically poised against the US Dollar. Any significant event in any corner of the world sways the currency market in a big way. Be it the US Debt Default Drama or the much talked about Euro Zone turmoil or the highly melodramatic downgrading exercises made by the credit rating agencies, occurrence of all or any of these events can affect the highly leveraged currency trading business.

But how does a trader in capital market who follows Nifty or SENSEX, the broad market indices stands to gain from this. Let us analyze effect of USD v/s INR on Nifty and USD as an instrument. If we appreciate the long term movements of USD v/s INR marked with important Nifty Levels. It can be seen that the strengthening of Rupee leads to stronger Indian Markets whereas Strengthening of Dollar correlates with Nifty bottoms.

This correlation can be closely observed in one year chart where important peaks and troughs of Nifty are almost inversely correlated with the USD-INR relationship. Any strength in Rupee accompanies an influx of FII money and hence a rally in Nifty, also the opposite will hold good by downward trend continuing in case of bounce by USD from there.

The underlying reason is the fact that the equity markets to a large extent is controlled by Foreign Institutional Investors and by that logic more FIIs coming in to invest in India shoots the Nifty up and the supply of USD in the economy simultaneously causing an indigenous fall in the price of USD. Hence when you are bullish on Nifty, be bearish on USD & vice versa. A trader can always use his expertise in the field of Nifty trading and can benefit immensely while trading currency pairs in general and USD in particular.

So in all we gather that the simplest of correlations that exist in the market is of Nifty and USD.

Bomkesh, the unusual sleuth and his second coming

Bomkesh Bakshi, a Bengali detective created by Saradindu Bandopadhyaya, is a rarity. For starters, he is perhaps the only married detective in the world. But, perhaps, that is a sign of the times. His time span was the 1940s-1960s, a time when Bengali gentlemen, irrespective of their profession, were supposed to "bhodrolok" who came back home to their wives, were dressed in "dhoti and kurta", smoke filtered cigarettes, read "Time" and admired Humphrey Bogart when they were not fighting the British or shouting at Nehru's "capitalism" policies (yes, Bengalis being the ultra-left kinds, found the centrist JL Nehru to be a "right-winger" who believed in "unfair free market policies"

But then Bomkesh is not alone. Most other detectives have been a sign of their times. Father Brown, the gentle priest, Hercule Poirot, the vain Belgian and Sherlock Holmes, the upright Brit have all been a man who was in sync with the era, only with a IQ higher than other common men

Now coming to the movie review. Bomkesh Bakshi has been played in - movies, plays and TV serials by several actors. Uttam Kumar, perhaps the greatest and the most popular Bengali actor of all time has played him amongst others, that too, in a Satyajit Ray film (one of only 2 occasions where Ray and Kumar worked together). However, the most popular and most enduring image of Bomkesh on screen is that of Rajit Kapur in the TV serial directed by the late Basu Chatterjee

Thus, when National award winning director Anjan Dutta, who himself is known more for his singing, or directing movies for the urban audience, chose Abir Chatterjee, a little known TV and Film actor for the role, eyebrows were raised. Especially when talks were going on that Rituporno Ghosh, the director of acclaimed movies like 19-she April and Chokher Bali was in talks with senior Bengali actor Prosenjit Chatterjee to direct a Bomkesh movie

However doubts were dispelled when the first movie of the franchise, based in the time of partition on a story Adim Ripu became a huge hit. The second movie is based on Chitrachor. Now, Chitrachor is not exactly a top Bomkesh story. I dont know anyone who has ever rated it in their top-5 Bomkesh story picks. But, it has a different side to it. Satyabati, Bomkesh's wife, has a huge role to play in the story. Though Saradindu got Bomkesh married (they married during a Bomkesh case involving Satyabati's family - Arthamnartham), he rarely brought Satyabati to the forefront

Even in the first movie, Ushoshie, who played Bomkesh's wife, was present in just one scene. So, to draw in some of the family audiences, not to bore them with a linear detective story, to bring in the romantic side of a tough sleuth, this story was chosen, pretty low on detection content (I have a feeling the next story in the franchise would be Banhi Patanga). Now, another aspect of Bomkesh's stories is that they are not staple diet for children - high adultery content. This story is no different

Also, the setting of the story has been changed a little to make it visually appealing to the cine going crowds. Saswata Chatterjee (of the now-Legendary Bob Biswas fame) is back as Ajit, Bomkesh's sidekick. a coterie of TV actors, most of whom were present in the first movie of the franchise - Biswajit Chakrabarty, Chandan Sen, Swastika Mukherjee and Pijush Ganguly are back, albeit playing a different set of charaters. A welcome addition has been the powerful character actor Kaushik Sen, who does a wonderful job

Without acting spoilers to the story, 3 things must be mentioned - 1. Anjan Dutt does a fine job of indicating the time period the story is set in - a poster of Morutirtha Hinglaj indicated the story is set sometime in the late 50s-early 60s 2. The settings are extremely appealing visually, as if Dooars is in itself a character in the movie 3. The Rabindrasangeet used in the movie sets the mood for total Bengali-ness

As far as acting and directing is concerned, Abir is realistic and not ambitious, he stays within his limits. Saswata and Ushasie do their jobs well, the rest play their roles well. But if a special mention has to be done, it has to be of the actor who plays Falguni Pal - he shines in his brief role. Anjan Dutt, too is learning as a director. My rating - 6/10

The movie has had a good BO opening, and I sincerely hope the movie draws in as many crowds as the first one. If there is one sleuth whose story needs to be told on a large canvas, it is Bomkesh Bakshi

Content is king in Bollywood

The success of 2 recent movies Paan Singh Tomar and Kahani, both made on extremely small budgets, is heart warming. For starters, there were no big stars or fashioniestas, only 2 strong actors playing the leads with a motley competitive bunch of supporting cast

Irfan Khan and Vidya Balan have both been around for long. Though they have been excellent actors, their average looks or non-filmy backgrounds have ensured less media coverage and less chances to excel in mainstream Bollywood. At least Irfan has got a chance to showcase his talent to a global audience through movies like "SlumDog Millionaire", "A Mighty Heart" and "The Namesake", Vidya has mostly played second fiddle to other younger and more attractive leading ladies, despite having a good body of work (Lage Raho Munnabhai, Parineeta etc). It is only since 2010, after playing a slew of strong feminine roles in movies like Ishqiya, Paa, No One Killed Jessica and The Dirty Picture that the world started taking notice of her histrionic abilities

Tigmanshu Dhulia and Sujoy Ghosh, 2 directors known for their offbeat work, took chances with movies that didn't offer much but for the script and the actors who played the protagonists. One was set in Chambal, the other in Kolkata. There were no song and dance sequences, no skimpily clad actors, no OTT actions sequences (a disturbing trend in recent films - without naming anybody, a few films without a story actually became mega-hits riding on the popularity of one actor). Made on extremely tight budgets, with little extravagance, they struck a chord with the audiences

The only other movie that made big money this year was the remake of the cult classic Agneepath, but it had everything going in its favor - a strong cast, a leading production house backing it, remake of a film of the legendary Big B, not to forget the songs, dance, action sequences etc

But as the 2 small budget movies proved, audiences have matured. They know what to see and what to reject -a remake of a big Hollywood hit turned out to be a dud earlier this year. They loved Big B singing "ekla chalo tre", rather than Small B trying to woo a "nadaan ladki", they made icons out of superbly enacted roles like Bob Biswas rather than a recently married couple

A vicious cycle of poorly written movies with just big names starting in the kid-2000s somehow seems to have come to an end. Yes, there will be individuals who will draw crowds, but, the makers will think twice before dishing out inane stuff. Mr. Singh, sorry, time to move on, you are no longer the king, content is

Has the IFA Shield lost its significance?

The IFA Shield is one of the oldest football tournaments in India and the world. 100 years ago, Mohun Bagan beat an English side in the IFA Shield, which was a matter of immense pride in India under British rule

Many an interesting battles involving the Kolkata giants and teams from outside India (Pkahtakhor, Pyong Yang etc) have made IFA Shield a premier domestic tournament in India as well as popular outside India

However, in recent times, the tournament has lost some of its sheen. The Governing body, the Indian Football Association (interestingly, who administers football only in West Bengal) have almost pushed the tournament to extinction. The rise of the Indian national League means the "trimukut" (3 crowns) - the Durand Cup, the Rovers Cup and the IFA Shield are not the most important tournaments anymore. In fact, the Federation Cup and National League are the only ways to play in Asia level tournaments

So, no wonder the sponsors shy away from tournaments like the IFA Shield. And the IFA has added to the problem by scheduling it towards the end of the season, when the only interest lies in how to complete the National League. Thus teams like Mohun Bagan and those from Goa stay away

Secondly, the venues - stadiums like the Howrah Stadium with small galleries and no amenities means the crowds hardly turn up. There was the Brazilian team Botafogo Fc which turned up as the "outside team", but their quality of football meant they were a disinterested, junior bunch who were sent just to get some exposure

The picture I clicked above shows the low turnout in the final of the tournament, where East Bengal, the local favorite played in front of an empty Salt Lake stadium. I talked with a few people, mostly hardcore East Bengal supporters, who had come because East Bengal were yet to win a trophy this season (they did win eventually, after a patchy, sub standard game of football from both sides)

If some serious soul searching is not done, the IFA Shield, with its rich heritage, will be in the football history books soon. In a subsequent post, will write about the slow demise of Indian football and the reasons

(all pictures clicked by author)